Through the first month of spring, CoreLogic reported that house values continued to decline. Values are still trending downward, although the rate of drop slowed from a -1.6% decrease in August to a -1.4% fall in September.

Along with a slowing in the rate of decrease, other indicators also saw progress. The research director for CoreLogic, Tim Lawless, stated, “Auction clearance rates also trended upwards, albeit subtly, in September and consumer sentiment nudged a little higher as well… We’ve also seen the flow of fresh listings continue to slide through the first month of spring, which is uncommon for this time of year.”

The difference between house values today and where they were at the start of COVID in March 2020 is still significant in the majority of cities. While Melbourne, which saw a milder increase than other locations (+17.3% from trough to peak), would only need to see a -4.3% dip in values before returning to pre-COVID conditions, home values at the combined capital city level would need to fall by another -13.5%.

The "spring selling season" in Australia is off to a slow start at a time when the flurry of new listings should be increasing. For the four weeks that ended on September 25th, there were 10% fewer new listings added to capital city property markets than during the during the same period last year and -12% less than the previous five-year average. The only exceptions are Darwin and Canberra, both of which saw a higher-than-average number of new listings over the past four weeks.

Tim Lawless stated, “It seems prospective vendors are prepared to wait out the housing downturn, rather than try to sell under more challenging market conditions.” The market's lower supply of new listings may play a significant role in establishing a floor beneath steeper price declines, sustaining the rate of decline's gradual slowing through September.